MemeBox FutureBlogger

How Exactly Will Our System Get Smarter?

Alvis — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 15:55:38 +0000

A favorite debate topic for many futurists, humanists, advanced defense theorists, sci-fi authors and Future Bloggers is the nature of future terrestrial intelligence increase. As change accelerates, how how exactly will we and/or the system around us get smarter?

The most popular scenario by far is Artificial General Intelligence , aka AI that equals or surpasses that of humanity, probably because it is the most immediately relatable and due to the fact that so much money is being poured into AGI research. In fact, some researchers are predicting a breakthrough in the field in just 5-10 years.

But there are a variety of other scenarios that could either outcompete this paradigm or conspire with it to accelerate intelligence in our system. These include human-based, alien-based, deeply systemic, or even exo-systemic possibilities.

Applying your particular brand of intelligence, which of the following do you think is the most optimal path to intelligence increase in the acceleration era? (Survey at end of post)

AGI: Human-generated machine intelligence such as in the films 2001: A Space Odyssey and A.I..

Individual Intelligence Amplification: Individual humans that grow vastly smarter due to hard, biological and/or soft cognitive upgrades, such as Bean in Ender’s Game.

Social Intelligence Amplification: A group or humanity as a whole collectively grows smarter, thus taking on the stewardship role for our Earth and species.

Biological Intelligence Amplification: One, more or all of the other species on Earth evolve or emerge, aided or automatically, the foremost intelligence on the planet. This could be viewed as a Gaiian awakening.

Alien Contact: Through efforts like SETI or those of the aliens themselves, we come into contact with some extra-terrestrial intelligence based in our universe that either stewards us or gives us a nice boost, a la the Vulcans in Star Trek, although this would likely be considerably more extreme.

Category: Technology
Year: Beyond
Tags: intelligence, iq, ai, strongai, ia, artificialintelligence, intelligenceamplification

Real human or computer generated image?

futuretalk — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 18:49:29 +0000

By Dick Pelletier

With all the switching between images in today’s sci-fi action films, the audience does not suspect that faces and figures appearing on screen are not always the real thing. It’s literally impossible to tell if they are real or computer generated images, digital concoctions created inside a computer at Sony Pictures Imageworks in Culver City, CA.

“We’ve reached a point where we can make every single thing computer generated,” says graphics supervisor Mark Sagar in a recent Wired Magazine article. The ability to do computer generated everything, including human faces, has recently opened a wealth of creative possibilities. Presenting accurate digital faces was the final, crucial piece to the puzzle.

But the main benefit of digital actors isn’t replacing live ones: it’s in creating scenes that are impossible in the real world. “In the past,” says Scott Stokdyk, visual-effects supervisor of the Spider Man series, “directors and editors were restricted to cuts around different quick actions, and camera angles, to convey a story. Now they don’t have those kinds of limits.”

Directors can follow synthetic actors as they swoop around skyscrapers and dodge bullets. What’s more, actors can be digitally aged, or de-aged, without having to spend hours in makeup. Some speculate that digital actors could make real actors obsolete, but most people believe there will always be a need for “real flesh and blood.”

This amazing digital wizardry has fostered another technology – interactive avatars. Driven by firms such as Microsoft and Honda, lifelike avatars with compelling characters will be available for home TV displays by 2015 or sooner.

Category: Technology
Year: General

Moon Architecture, Dubai 2050 & DNA Manipulation

Alvis — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 04:33:57 +0000

The Future Scanner Daily Top 5 serves to highlight 5 of the best scans submitted to the Future Scanner during the last 24 hours.

Moon Base Architecture
- Scanned by AJ0111

Europe Seeks to Harvest African Sun
- Scanned by jvarden

Dubai 2050
- Scanned by AJ0111

Consortium develops method to manipulate DNA
- Scanned by martymcfly

The Digital Home of 2013
- Scanned by SwankyJ

Category: Other
Year: General

Can the Kindle Knockout Textbooks?

jheylin — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 19:41:00 +0000

Ask not for whom the bell tolls, because the bell is tolling for textbooks. Amazon has announced that it is releasing two new Kindle devices and in doing so, may have killed the college textbook.

Ah, the college textbook. So valuable, so hated, and yet, so loved. I remember my favorite textbook – a complete history of the making of the atomic bomb. It was red, had bent edges (from a previous owner, but I wasn’t jealous) and weighed enough to serve as a bludgeoning device. The idea that future generations might be missing out on such a wonderful experience, sniff, just breaks my heart.

But, despite our love of our hefty friends, time might be running out. What will the new Kindle mean for students?

Higher Prices, Not Lower - Contrary to popular sentiment, the annihilation of printed textbooks could actually mean increased expenses for students. After all, the actual textbook data will have to be encrypted better than most credit card transactions. What stops someone from getting the latest edition of Philosophy 101 off of uTorrent? Nothing.

It Must be Cheap - If there’s one thing to be learned from the music industry, it’s that the price of the data has to be low… or at least low enough so students won’t result to illegal means to get their materials. Even the most secure textbook will likely be pirated and made freely downloadable – an irresistible temptation for students staring at a $500 per-quarter textbook bill.

Category: Technology
Year: General
Tags: amazon, kindle, textbooks, college

New you by 2018: healthier, stronger, younger looking

futuretalk — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 18:33:54 +0000

By Dick Pelletier

In just ten short years, you may be looking into the mirror and wondering, “Who is that gorgeous creature?” Your reflection would reveal a much younger and healthier you; with natural hair color, youthful skin, perfect vision, real teeth, a spring in your step, and an incredibly sharp mind and memory.

Welcome to tomorrow’s futuristic world of biotech enhancements, which forward thinkers believe will be widely available and affordable by 2018. According to venture capitalists, the next ten years will be driven by lightening-fast complex medical breakthroughs that promise to improve health, extend lives; even redefine what it means to be human.

The Institute for Global Future’s Dr. James Canton believes a trillion dollar health enhancement market will evolve in the next decade. And 100 million baby boomers and senior citizens are anxiously awaiting its products; which one day will include biotech and nanotech miracles to replace aging organs, muscles, bones and skin.

Some health enhancements are already available today. Fertility science, prosthetic limbs, wonder drugs like Prozac and Viagra; even steroid use, are all designed to improve human performance. Last year, 12 million opted for plastic surgery in their quest to look and feel better, giving the cosmetics industry its largest success ever.

But over the next ten years, stem cell and gene therapies, initially developed to cure sicknesses, will dwarf what can be accomplished with the knife. These new therapies promise far less intrusive means to achieve that “younger body” look. And ‘boomers and seniors can’t wait to take advantage of these breakthrough technologies.

Category: Other
Year: General

Bubble Car, Futuristic Materials & Sawdust to Biofuel

Marisa Vitols — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 16:13:16 +0000

The Future Scanner Daily Top 5 serves to highlight 5 of the best scans submitted to the Future Scanner during the last 24 hours.

Artifacts from the Future Scanned by: justinelee

Chemical breakthrough turns sawdust into biofuel
- Scanned by Christina

FCC Hearing Looks into Digital Future
- Scanned by martymcfly

10 Futuristic Materials
- Scanned by AJ0111

Self Driving Electric Bubble Car
- Scanned by AJ0111

Category: Other
Year: General

Bucky Fuller Returns?

garrygolden — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 21:28:48 +0000

By Garry Golden

If curators at New York’s Whitney Museum are correct, the world might once again turn towards Buckminster (Bucky) Fuller for inspiration in addressing global challenges.

Bucky Fuller (1895-1983) is widely recognized as one of the world’s great modern visionaries of the 20th century. He was a natural Futurist, not because of his intellect, but his wisdom to challenge widely held assumptions from the world around him.

He blended his skills as a writer, thinker, and engineer into a concept he called “Comprehensive Anticipatory Design Science.” Bucky believed that the essence of human life on the planet is to solve problems and continue expanding our awareness and views of what is possible.

New York’s Whitney Museum has re-opened the question of Bucky’s outlook towards the world with its latest exhibition Buckminster Fuller Starting with the Universe running through September 21, 2008.

Our best strategy for addressing problems of the 21st century might be to revisit the core principles of his philosophy related to design, shape and energy. If the Whitney curators, are correct, Bucky Fuller might turn out to be one of the most influential thinkers of not one, but two centuries.

Category: Environment
Year: General
Tags: nanotechnology, energy, environment

Alas, Poor Mouse, I Knew Him Well…

jheylin — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 17:30:00 +0000

In an interview with the BBC, Gartner analyst Steve Prentice predicts the demise of the mouse (the thing in your hand right now, not actual mice – we need those for testing drugs on) in the next three to five years. He remarks that although the mouse works fine for desktops, for mobile devices like laptops, “it’s over.” But how accurate is this belief? Is the mouse genuinely on the edge of extinction?

It could be true. A laptop touchpad is hard to use, and carrying around mice with all the other usual laptop baggage (power cords, wireless internet cards, headphones) is impractical, and on top of that, you need a flat surface. If there’s one thing the Nintendo Wii has shown us, it’s that tracking technology is not only available, but it’s cheap.

While there’s no denying that vocal and facial recognition software has the potential to do away with the mouse, a majority of users still believe that our little friend is a long way from retirement. The reasoning? Well, for one thing, the mouse is incredibly useful and quick. And, in the words of Adrian Kingsly-Hughes at ZDNet, “Anything that replaces the mouse not only has to be better than it, it’ll have to be a LOT better.” In other words, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

The mouse may well be discarded at some point in our near future, but the odds of that happening in the next five years seem like a pipe dream to me.

Category: Technology
Year: General
Tags: mouse, death, computer, facial, recognition

Pros and Cons of Life Extension

futuretalk — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 22:09:51 +0000

Opinion by Dick Pelletier

Some of you have heard me talk about prospects for extreme life extension – “To live in a healthy body continuously until I choose to die; to not be killed by disease or aging.”

I believe that science and technology will make extreme life extension possible for most of us alive today. The prime requisite is to maintain good health, keep a positive attitude towards the future, and root for science and technology breakthroughs in the coming decades.

We will soon experience overwhelming advances in disease prevention and age reversal through gene therapies and nanotech breakthroughs. Over the coming years, we will slowly grow into a body fashioned from “designer genes” that can never age or get sick.

Overpopulation: Prospects for this beautiful future are not without controversy. Some argue that humans living longer will cause overpopulation problems, such as expanding poverty and damaging the environment. However, they fail to realize that technology – spurred on by commerce (filling needs) – will provide solutions through improved agriculture, easier access to food and better use of space resources.

Poor health: Some assume that people will continue to exhibit signs of aging and be decrepit into their hundreds citing people who are kept alive for years in terrible health, sometimes beyond the point at which they wish to live. Merely extending life without improving health is a bad idea. This is why today’s medical world focuses, not just on preventing death, but on alleviating the affects of aging by curing diseases. Discoveries will soon develop for the reversal of aging, so that elderly people might one day choose to revert to the mind and body of a healthy 20-something. (cont.)

Category: Other
Year: General
Tags: pelletier, dickpelletier, futuretalk, positivefuturist, lifeextension

2016 Fashion, Floating Cities & Nokia's Nanotech 'Morph'

Marisa Vitols — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 05:07:00 +0000

The Future Scanner Daily Top 5 serves to highlight 5 of the best scans submitted to the Future Scanner during the last 24 hours.

Future fashion: What will you wear in 2016?
- Scanned by AJ0111

Nokia Nanotech ‘Morph’
- Scanned by SwankyJ

Lilypad – Floating City of the Future
- Scanned by jvarden

The Future of Electronic Paper
- Scanned by jheylin

PC of the Future
- Scanned by therae

Category: Other
Year: General

Wake Up McCain and Obama - We need a future focused infrastructure now

wowshucks — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 19:28:15 +0000

The recent announcement of a joint venture between GE and Abu Dhabi to finance and build advanced water and energy infrastructure highlights where American investment needs to be, and why we are falling behind.

An analysis of todays announcement of a massive joint venture between GE and Abu Dhabi offers the most relevant roadmap to date for the future of high tech infrastructure, specifically the development of clean technologies. This global movement offers an amazing view into the future, as the most progressive companies and goverments in the world hash out collaborative plans to deploy the latest and best solutions for the global technology elite.

Throughout history the areas of the world with the best infrastructure have been the dominant forces in global trade and innovation. In the past it meant the best roads, ports, schools, etc. GE and Abu Dhabi show us that it is now a cross pollination of public and private partnership, facilitated by investment authorities and Fortune 500 companies. As we break down this strategic partnership piece by piece, we get a glimpse at the mechanisms in place that are creating the homes, towns, and cities of the future, and how their interplay effects a larger ecosystem of innovation. No one can dismiss this as central planning, rather it is an attempt by government to become more innovative and responsive to the needs of tomorrow. (cont.)

Category: Economics
Year: General
Tags: infrastructure

Biogerontology rising: Recent progress in yeast aging research

mycophage — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 21:22:54 +0000

(cross-posted from Ouroboros: Research in the biology of aging)

Our understanding of aging in animals owes a great debt to a large body of careful work in a single-celled organism, the brewer’s yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Indeed, as I’ve argued before, yeast is one of the two organisms with the strongest credible claim to have started modern biogerontology. An unusually large crop of yeast aging papers have appeared over the last few months, and I thought it would be appropriate to spend a few paragraphs describing them — in honor of this humble organism that rises our bread, ferments our beer, and has done so much to open our eyes to the fundamental mechanisms of aging.

For those unfamiliar with the yeast field or simply wishing a clearly written and nearly comprehensive summary, Steinkraus et al. provide the historical perspective. The piece thoroughly reviews the development of yeast as a model system in aging, as well as the arguments in favor of a connection between results in yeast and well-established (but sometimes hard-to-test) hypotheses in animals.

Based on the influence that yeast has already had on biogerontology as a whole, it seems fair to claim that it will continue to reveal fundamentals of aging that are conserved across evolution. (cont.)

Category: Health & Medicine
Year: General
Tags: aging, longevity, yeast, lifespan

Energy startups see plenty of room for innovation at the bottom

garrygolden — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 23:23:36 +0000

By Garry Golden

What makes QuantumSphere and A123Systems two of the most innovative energy companies in the world?

Because they are investing in the future design of catalysts! And their strategy is to innovative at the nanoscale.

The Beginning of Nano

Physicist Richard Feynman is often credited with launching the ‘nanoscale’ era of engineering with his famous lecture ‘Plenty of Room at the Bottom’ at Caltech in 1959. Feynman described our future ability to manipulate individual atoms and eventually create complex mechanical structures made of the fundamental molecules.

Fifty years after Feynman’s lecture, researchers and startups are making significant progress in designing nanoscale structured materials that will have an enormous impact on all aspects of the energy industry from production, to storage to end use delivery.

What is disruptive about catalysts?

Simply put, catalysts help us get more output with less energy input. Catalysts speed up the reaction of photo-, chemical and electrochemical changes in everything from batteries, fuel cells, and solar cells, to the refining of coal, gasoline, diesel, and natural gas, and the production of hydrogen and biofuels. Catalysts also help to reduce the energy required to create plastics, biomaterials, pharmaceuticals, and fertilizer.

The rules of the energy industry game are being re-written by companies designing synthetic metal and carbon-based catalysts that change our notions of what is possible in the years ahead. Other companies are attempting to harness, or mimic, naturally occurring bio-catalysts that gracefully manipulate energy in all living things from algae/bacteria to plants to human beings.

Catalysts are the silent work horses of our modern world but you seldom, if ever, hear or see the word mentioned in mainstream conversations about energy. Yet they hold the key to unlocking human potential without draining the planet’s resources. Catalysts can help realize the vision of a world powered by cheap, abundant, clean energy. (Continued)

Category: Environment
Year: General
Tags: energy, fuel, cells, hydrogen, nanotechnology, power, solar, oil, gas

New memory tech will change how we think & learn

futuretalk — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 18:59:37 +0000

By Dick Pelletier

If there was a pill that could immediately improve your memory, enabling you to recall any selected event in your past with sharp detail, would you take it? How about a pill that would erase an unwanted memory, like a traumatic childhood event that still bothers you in adult life?

And even more radical, would you like to download knowledge directly into your brain enabling you to immediately speak and understand a new language, or instantly learn any new subject matter, without suffering through the lengthy process of learning from scratch?

Memory-management drugs that address the first two questions are being developed now and should be available in about five years, according to Memory Pharmaceuticals, www.memorypharma.com, a leading New Jersey drug research firm.

Most of these memory remedies focus on boosting recall, but some address the 13 million Americans who suffer from post-traumatic stress disorder with drugs that will dim, or even erase, traumatic memories. Such products promise to revolutionize psychotherapy. Instead of trying to overcome a past trauma, patients will soon be able to simply erase all memories of the event as if it had never happened – problem solved.

A more radical and futuristic technology, downloading knowledge directly into our brain, could be available in the near future, according to Peter Passaro, graduate student at Georgia Tech, in his article posted at www.betterhumans.com. Passaro suggests that mind-machine interfaces will be available by 2020, and he mentions how this might be accomplished. (cont.)

Category: Other
Year: General
Tags: pelletier, dickpelletier, futuretalk, positivefuturist, positivefuturistcom

Brainwaves in Motion, Touch-Based Illusions & Space Gambling

Marisa Vitols — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 04:06:00 +0000

The Future Scanner Daily Top 5 serves to highlight 5 of the best scans submitted to the Future Scanner during the last 24 hours.

MIT-led team creates touch-based illusion
- Scanned by justinelee

Identity in a Networked World
- Scanned by AJ0111

Brainwaves into Motion
- Scanned by martymcfly

Gambling on a Space Casino
- Scanned by AJ0111

How Jungle Rot Could Power the Future
- Scanned by fantasywriter

Category: Other
Year: General

MemeBox Interviews Best-Seller and U.S. Senate Candidate Jack Uldrich

victoria15 — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 15:22:32 +0000

In the not too distant future cancer will be eradicated, clean and powerful new forms of energy will be the norm and people all across the globe will have access to clean drinking water. While to some such predictions may sound like narrative straight out of a utopian sci-fi novel, according to best-selling author and futurist Jack Uldrich those are realistic possibilities in a world driven by accelerating change.

A global futurist, speaker and proprietor of well respected consulting firm Nanoveritas, Uldrich advises a variety of businesses on nanotechnology developments and, more broadly, how to keep ahead of the curve of a variety of rapidly advancing technologies. On July 10, 2008, I had the opportunity to interview Mr. Uldrich and discuss a host of interesting issues including robots in hospitals, solar panels mixed into wallpaper and paint, and the potential for low-cost solar cells to uplift underdeveloped regions around the world. In the days that followed, Mr. Uldrich announced his bid for the U.S. Senate which, if successful, would make him the first professional futurist to hold national office.

Here’s the full text of the audio interview with the man who could become the next U.S. Senator from the great State of Minnesota, chock full of wisdom and also some great advice for both students and lay persons looking to get a leg up on the future:

M: What do you do and how is that related to the future?

JU: I am a writer and a public speaker and all of my books focus on the future. Really since my first book on nanotech 5 years ago, I have broadened out to looking at all emerging technologies and all of my speaking engagements are around trying to prepare business and trade organizations to prepare for the future.

Category: Environment
Year: 2008
Tags: jack, uldrich, nanotechnology, nanoveritas, nanotech, ussenate, senate

OFF THE GRID: An Untethered Future

wowshucks — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 21:17:24 +0000

Events of the last five years have shown us that living on the grid, dependent on large utility companies, has been anything but stable. Large electric companies, still reliant on fossil fuel to generate power, have been forced to raise prices dramatically. An antiquated series of electrical lines, transformers, and switches have produced devastating blackouts that have cost our economy billions. With global demand for energy expected to rise, and the cost of upgrading infrastructure approaching hundreds of billions, living off the grid may become a highly plausible and desirable future for many people.

In order to live off the grid you need to tie production and consumption together, creating small scale systems for water and power that require no outside support. It also requires a heavy dose of conservation and efficiency, utilizing a system that operates within the constraints of a limited source. Living off the grid requires a large up front investment in equipment and expertise, and a pioneering spirit. Costs for solar and wind generation systems routinely cost tens of thousands of dollars, yielding a cost per kilowatt hour that exceeds that of the grid. Nonetheless it is becoming an option many people are beginning to consider as the marketplace changes. More and more people are looking to raw materials for energy that are free, inexhaustible, and clean.

As innovation and subsidies collide in the market to create critical mass for residential solar and wind systems, it is reasonable to expect demand for these technologies to grow. According to Solar Buzz, a San Francisco-based industry research company, demand for solar power has grown 20-25% a year for the last twenty years. Many of these applications of solar power come in the form of on the grid solutions, however many of these are distributed at the point of use. It is however the biggest choice for off the grid applications. Demand has grown so fast that more silicon now goes into photovoltaics than computer chips. (cont.)

Category: The Home
Year: General
Tags: grid, offthegrid, electric, electricity, home, thehome, house

Get ready for big things from world of nanotech

futuretalk — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 19:01:50 +0000

By Dick Pelletier

Arthur C. Clarke once said: “Any sufficiently advanced technology is virtually indistinguishable from magic.” Enter mankind’s newest plunge into the future – nanotechnology.

One day soon, a small Star Trek-like replicator called a “nanofactory” will sit on your kitchen counter and let you order up any product you want – plasma TV, clothes, an appliance, or whatever your dreams desire – at little or no cost.

This wild technology sounds like science fiction, but its not. According to AI entrepreneur Ray Kurzweil and nanotech author Eric Drexler, this nanofactory will arrive by the 3rd decade of this century – 2020-2030.

Here’s how nanotech replicators would work: microscopic-size machines collect raw atoms from supplied chemicals, or from something as inexpensive as seawater, and enable those atoms to grow or “morph” into the final product: a sweater, refrigerator, health medicine, or even a duplicate nanofactory.

Key technologies of the past half-century – transistors, semiconductors, and genetic engineering – all focused on reducing size, materials and costs, while increasing power and efficiency. We now stand poised to continue this trend into a revolution that offers the potential to rebuild the entire physical world – our bodies and brains included – one atom at a time.

The National Institutes of Health states that someday implanted nanotech materials will actually become part of the body – able to search out and destroy cancer cells before they develop into a tumor, or precisely direct drugs to heal damaged tissues – and when no longer needed, dissolve and be absorbed or excreted. (cont.)

Category: Technology
Year: General
Tags: pelletier, futuretalk, nanotech, nano, nanotechnology, dickpelletier, positivefuturist

Future Scanner Weekly Top 10

Marisa Vitols — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 06:29:12 +0000

In addition to our weekly awards, every week MemeBox releases a Top 10 List of the most interesting and useful Future Scans posted the during the preceding week. This list is a great way to get acquainted with what the Future Scanner has to offer and to quickly digest some great information.

What Happens When Nanotech Begins to Poison Us?
- Scanned by mielle

Tiny Magnets to Capture Cancer
- Scanned by jvarden

Quantum Leap towards Quantum Computing?
- Scanned by mielle

Energy crisis threatens U.S. survival, Gore says
- Scanned by Alvis

Can Space Tourism Bring World Peace
- Scanned by mielle

Sony Unveils a 256 player ‘Massive Action Game’
- Scanned by dvorak

Is This the Shape of Skyscrapers of Tomorrow?
- Scanned by mielle

Wind-propelled Airships to Counter Fuel Costs?
- Scanned by jvarden

Our Electric Future – Resilience Over Independence
- Scanned by Alvis

Self-Assembling Tissues
- Scanned by Bora

Category: Other
Year: General

And the weekly MemeBox awards go to...

Marisa Vitols — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 06:47:58 +0000

Here at MemeBox, Sunday is the day we look back at all of the Future Blogger posts and Future Scanner scans in an effort to distill and recognize the best of what you, the community, have contributed to the site throughout the previous 7 days.

Future Scanner of the Week: mielle for scans including for scans including Roadmap For Brain Augmentation via the Internet and Quantum Leap towards Quantum Computing?.

Future Blogger of the Week: jcchan for posts including Your Grandma Will Be Playing Spore This Fall and The Future of Space Travel is Yucky.

Future Scan of the Week: Tiny Magnets to Capture Cancer
- Scanned by jvarden

Future Blogger Post of the Week: Utopian vs. Dystopian Futures
- Written by jheylin

Congratulations, winners!

Category: Other
Year: General