MemeBox FutureBlogger

The Next Great Political Debate of the Future?

juldrich — Thu, 12 Feb 2009 22:15:00 +0000

By Jack Uldrich

In one of those wonderful historical anomalies, February 12, 2009 was the 200th anniversary of the birth of both Abraham Lincoln and Charles Darwin.

Lincoln is recognized as one of the greatest American presidents for helping end slavery. Darwin, of course, is the father of evolutionary biology.

It might appear these two historical giants have little else in common except the same birthday, but Darwin’s theory of evolution will soon call forth a new political debate which could, if not peacefully resolved, rip this country apart as surely as slavery did.

In today’s Wall Street Journal there is an article describing how advances in genetic technology are ushering in a new era of “designer babies” and some parents are pre-selecting embryos based on cosmetic characteristics such as eye and hair color.

Category: Culture
Year: 2009
Tags: jack, uldrich, jump, the, curve, future, darwin, lincoln, evolution, of, humanity

The Future of Water: Unfiltered

juldrich — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 16:46:51 +0000

By Jack Uldrich

Cross-posted from www.jumpthecurve.net

Late last week, it was announced that NASA had, pardon the pun, pissed away $154 million by creating a urinal/water fountain system that didn’t work. To witness how a more simple technology can have huge implications down here on this planet, watch this amazing video (Note: it is a little graphic, but it helps to remember that these are the real life conditions under which billions of people must actually get their water):

Category: Business & Work
Year: 2008
Tags: water, future, of, jack, uldrich

The Zoo of the Future?

juldrich — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 17:44:22 +0000

By Jack Uldrich

Cross-posted from www.jumpthecurve.net

In my book, Jump the Curve, the final chapter is dedicated to the idea of “doing the impossible.” In short, it is my contention that unless you internalize the notion of accelerating change you will dismiss as “impossible” many things that will be imminently possible tomorrow due to the exponential nature of technological progress.

A wonderful case in point is this fascinating article from today’s New York Times claiming that it might soon be possible to regenerate a Wooly Mammoth for $10 million because DNA sequencing technology is continually getting more inexpensive.

Regardless of what one may think of the moral and ethical wisdom of recreating Wooly Mammoths, it is imprudent to dismiss the idea as impossible. Yet this is precisely what Rudolph Jaenisch, a biologist at the Whitehead Institute, has done by proclaiming the idea: “a wishful-thinking experiment with no realistic chance for success.”

Category: Biotechnology
Year: 2013

Voice Recognition Technology Takes a Baby Step into the Future

juldrich — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 01:52:32 +0000

By Jack Uldrich

Cross-posted from www.jumpthecurve.net

Late yesterday, Google released a very cool new mobile application which employs voice recognition technology. The question is not so much what the technology can do today, the question is what will the technology be able to do in the near future – and how might it change education, health care, and a host of other daily activities?

I’d love to hear other “Future Bloggers” thoughts on how this technology could unfold and how it might alter people’s behavior. Below are my initial thoughts:

Category: Business & Work
Year: 2009

Change is in the Air - We Need a President Who Can Help Us Prepare for It

juldrich — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 17:45:45 +0000

By Jack Uldrich

An opinion piece. Cross-posted from www.jumpthecurve.net

Our elected officials should spend less time promising that they will “deliver” change and more time helping society prepare for the change that is coming because it is going to be massive.

After almost two years of campaigning, it is finally here: Election Day! Change is in the air, but not for the reasons one might expect.

Regardless of a person’s preference for Obama, McCain, Nader or one of the other candidates, I don’t actually believe they (or any politician for that matter) will be the primary instrument of change in the near future. That mantle will instead belong to technology.

Let me just provide a quick glimpse from the world of technology through the lens of a single day—today.

I began my morning by reading this article on a “solar power game changer.” The piece describes how a new antireflective coating now allows for the “near perfect” absorption of sunlight. In other words, society is one step closer to solar technology replacing a number of conventional energy sources. Politicians can clamor all they want about “clean coal” and “more drilling” but my hunch is that technological advances will render their opinions and policy suggestions moot.

Next, I stumbled across this article discussing a new “heart-patching” technology. Combined with yesterday’s announcement by a Medtronic official that the “medical device industry is done,” it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that health care is quickly moving in the direction of preventative care.

Category: Business & Work
Year: 2012
Tags: election, mccain, obama, change

Future Flash: "100 Years"

juldrich — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 19:37:23 +0000

FutureBlogger contributor and futurist, Jack Uldrich, uses history to outline three traits people will need to embrace in order to prosper in an era of accelerating change.

Editor’s Note: Congratulations to Jack on the launch of his new video enterprise! Jack, we eagerly await all of the forward-looking goodness you’ve got to offer in the new format.

Category: Business & Work
Year: Beyond
Tags: uldrich, jackuldrich, futureflash

The Future is Converging All Around Us

juldrich — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 16:49:34 +0000

One of the biggest and most exciting trends in technology is that of “convergence” – or how different technologies will combined with one another to create entirely new devices. These devices, in turn, will go on to change human behavior in unique and unexpected ways.

Convergence, as a trend, is nothing new. The printing press did not materialize out of thin air. First, paper, and then ink, and ultimately moveable type had to be created before Gutenberg could create his historic device. The radio, television, computer and Internet are also the result of a convergence of various technologies.

To this end, I recently came across three articles on three different technologies which, when they converge, could change everything from how we educate and entertain ourselves to how key aspects of our economy operate.

The first is virtual reality technology. This insightful article from TechCrunch discusses the new “RealityV experience” developed by Intelligence Gaming. It is part virtual reality and part video and it is now being used by the Army to help soldiers train for real-world situations – such as dealing with a hostile crowd in a foreign country.

The video below provides an excellent overview of the technology:

Category: Business & Work
Year: 2015
Tags: jackuldrich, uldrich, converge, convergence

A Wave to the Future

juldrich — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 18:01:05 +0000

By Jack Uldrich

Cross-posted at www.jumpthecurve.net

Toshiba has developed a new gesture-based interface for flat-panel displays. It is easy to see how the technology might someday be used to replace the remote control, and it is also easy to envision how the technology will make for more interactive video games. But how else might the technology take root in the workplace of the future?

I envision a couple of possibilities. For one, doctors and surgeons will be able to access medical information without needing to touch anything (and, thus, not risk picking up any germs); students will be able to access educational information in new and innovative ways (imagine spinning around a complex 3-D molecule or a strand of DNA); advertisers will engage potential customers in unique ways; architects and designers will be able to more quickly manipulate models; physical therapists will be able to design programs that patients can practice on their television; athletes will be able to hone their reflexes on custom-made programs; and, more innovatively, manufacturers should be able to use a reverse version of the technology to show customers how to repair and fix things.

Category: Business & Work
Year: 2011

Will I Die?

juldrich — Thu, 25 Sep 2008 20:16:45 +0000

By Jack Uldrich

Cross-posted from www.jumpthecurve

I ask this question from neither a deep-seated fear of dying nor an egotistical desire to live forever. I simply ask it from the perspective of someone who is deeply interested in the accelerating pace of change and is concerned we are heading into a future for which few of us are really prepared.

Let me begin by sharing a couple of recent news items which speak to the astounding progress being made in the field of health care.

To begin, if I am in need of surgery sometime within the next few years, it is likely that that surgery will be conducted with the assistance of a robot. Given that these robots are already better than many human surgeons, this suggest I will not only get out of the hospital faster but that I will be in better condition when I do so. Continued advances in robotics will only improve surgical outcomes over the coming years.

Next, say, I am in an accident. There is now a very good chance – due to advances in the Nationwide Health Information Network, personal electronic records and the ever-improving capability of the Internet – that my providers will be able to rapidly access a growing wealth of medical knowledge in order to keep me alive.

Much of this knowledge will likely be genetic in nature and it is not unreasonable to believe – given the extraordinary advances in genomics as well as the possibility that I will within a few years be able to sequence my own genome for less than $1000 dollars - that I will soon be able to avail myself to a growing category of drugs individually tailored to treat me for everything from heart disease and diabetes to a wide variety of cancers.

Assuming then that I dodge some of these pesky middle-age risks, there is a very real chance, according to this article, that I’ll soon be able to “grow replacement body parts.” We can already replace our aging hips and knees, but what happens when I can replace my lungs and, eventually, my heart?

The question is a serious one because society is closer to this future than most people realize.

Alas, these advances – which I remind you are only from the past few days – are just the beginning. I am now 44 years and it is not unreasonable to think, given recent medical progress, that I will live to 100.

But even this is the wrong way to think about this issue. The question I – and all of us, really – need to ask is what further advances will be made in the next 56 years of my life and how might they extend my life past 100 years of age?

Category: Biotechnology
Year: Beyond
Tags: die, dying, jackuldrich, longevity, lifespan, death, life

A Penny for Your Thoughts

juldrich — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 17:02:36 +0000

Jack Uldrich

Cross-posted from www.unlearning101.com

Last week, a colleague of mine at Future Blogger, Alvis Brigis, suggested that the coming reign of online video broadcasting as the "most ubiquitous and accessible form of communication" may be short-lived. In its stead, he suggested that brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) may replaced it.

To many people the idea of brain-to-computer or even brain-to-brain communication might seem a little "out there." I disagree and think that Alvis is on the right track. As evidence, I submit this recent article on the U.S. Army’s plans to invest in a "Thought Helmut" for voiceless communication. And lest anyone think that voiceless communication is some far-off, fuzzy, futuristic technology just check out this amazing video demonstrating an early prototype of this technology.

Until I can read your thoughts directly, I’d be interested in reading your reactions to this possibility and how you think it may necessitate that we unlearn some things—such as, perhaps, how we communicate in the future.

Category: Communication
Year: General
Tags: jackuldrich, alvisbrigis, bci, brain, braincomputerinterface, interface, communication

Personalized Medicine's Accelerating Future

juldrich — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 15:43:00 +0000

By Jack Uldrich

Cross-posted from www.jumpthecurve.net

This past week I gave a presentation on “The Future of Genomics” to the Minnesota Hospital Association. In the course of my speech, I listed a variety of reasons why society is accelerating toward a future of more personalized medicine, including advances in DNA microarray technology; the growing wealth of genetic knowledge being facilitated by such tools as the “Wikipedia” for Genes and the new “SNPedia;” private money (in the form of the Archon X Prize); the growing number of start-up companies who are making it more possible for people to have either a portion or their entire genome sequenced by companies such as 23andMe, DeCode, Navigenics and Knome); and the recent passage of the Genetic Information Non-Discrimination Act (GINA).

Alas, none of these things speak to the possibility like real results. To that end, I’d like to highlight just two articles I came across this morning. The first is from the Wall Street Journal and the article discusses how an old heart drug, bucindolol, has been found to reduce death for people who have a certain genetic mutuation by up to 38%. The second article, “Chemotherapy Get Personal,” reviews the findings of a recent study in the journal Genes and Development which explains how advanced computer algorithms are analyzing the activity of 20,000 genes to better match specific chemotherapy drugs with individual cancer patients.

Category: Biotechnology
Year: General

Businesses' Newest Tool: The Supercomputer

juldrich — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 20:22:00 +0000

By Jack Uldrich

Cross-posted from www.jumpthecurve.net

Yesterday, Cray, the self-described “supercomputer company” officially moved into the personal computing realm when it announced it’s new personal supercomputer, the CX1.

For years, supercomputers have been considered indispensable for large corporations. For example, using supercomputers, Boeing was able to reduce by seven-fold (from 77 to 11) the number of aircraft wings it needed to physically construct for its new “787” Dreamliner before finding the right one. In much the same way, the automotive industry has used supercomputing to help it reduce from 5 years to 18 months the time it takes to move a new automobile design from the drawing board to the showroom floor.

The relevance of Cray’s news is that now a number small and medium-sized businesses will be able to similarly avail themselves of the power of supercomputers. And what might these supercomputers help businesses do? Excellent question.

The best way to answer that is by providing some recent examples of companies using supercomputing:

1. Pringle’s has used supercomputers to help redesign the shape of its iconic potato chip so that it flies off the assembly line and into the can in a faster and more efficient manner.

2. Proctor & Gamble used a supercomputer to redesign its Pamper’s diaper brand.

Category: Business & Work
Year: General

A MAV-erick Defense Policy

juldrich — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 20:18:00 +0000

By Jack Uldrich

Cross-posted from www.jumpthecurve.net

At present, the United States government spends hundreds of billions of dollars in an effort to keep this country safe at home and defeat its enemies abroad. Much of the money is well spent but, often, I can’t help but feel we are wasting precious resources fighting “the last war.” As I argued in this piece a few weeks ago, we should instead be “studying the first six months of the next war.”

To end this end, I’d like to introduce you to a revolutionary new technology which could, in the words of the chief scientist of the U.S. Air Force, be a real “game-changer.” The Air Force calls the technology Micro Air Vehicles (or MAVs) and they are small, robotic drones (roughly the size of small birds) that could conceivably follow a terrorist back into a cave in Afghanistan and eliminate him.

Category: Business & Work
Year: General
Tags: uav, microdrone, military, plane, airplane, robotic

The Future of War

juldrich — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 14:27:14 +0000

By Jack Uldrich

Cross-posted from jumpthecurve.net and dotheimpossible08.com

In 2005, I wrote a book on General George C. Marshall entitled “Soldier, Statesman, Peacemaker: Leadership Lessons from George C. Marshall.” One of my favorite quotes of Marshall’s is the advice he pounded into the heads of his junior officers: “Study the first six months of the next war.”

It was great advice in the 1920s and 1930s (when Marshall trained over 200 officers who would later become generals during World War II), and it is still great advice today. To this end, I’d like to direct you to two news articles from today’s papers. The first is from The Guardian and it discusses how the brain will be the battlefield of the future. Among other things it discusses how drugs may soon be used as “pharmacological land mines,” and how the advances in neuroscience could alter our definition of torture.

The second article reviews how the U.S. may be vulnerable to Internet attacks such as those which Russia is currently employing in its war against Georgia.

Together, the two stories strongly suggest that military planners should be “studying the first six months of the next war” because the next war is likely to be radically different from that which they are currently planning today.

Category: Business & Work
Year: General

Keep Your Mind's Eye on Cybernetics

juldrich — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 17:19:22 +0000

By Jack Uldrich

Cross-posted from www.jumpthecurve.net

Imagine sitting in your home and being able to control a device in a different room, a different city or even a different country by thought alone. Sounds impossible doesn’t it? Well, accordingly to this fascinating article from Popular Mechanics, advances in the field of cybernetics are occurring so rapidly that such things may be possible in the not-too-distant future.

Consider this: a monkey in North Carolina can already send a signal to Japan (where it controls a robot) faster than it can send a message from its brain to its own muscles. One immediate practical application of this technology may occur in the field of surgery whereby a surgeon could control a small robotic device faster and more precisely than she could move her hand. In a field like brain surgery such a distinction could make a big difference.

It will be some time before other cybernetic devices move into the mainstream, but it is interesting to consider how such mind-machine devices may change how we perceive and interact with our environment in the future. For example, imagine being able to control a robot by thought alone. Forget to feed your dog this morning, just “think” your bot to do it. Forget to water the plants or turn off the iron? Not a problem. A solution is just a thought away. (cont.)

Category: Business & Work
Year: 2017

Robots Advance

juldrich — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 03:38:15 +0000

By Jack Uldrich

Cross-posted from www.jumpthecurve.net

Last week, I explained how humans might soon be learning things from robots. Today, I’d like to explain why robots might become a more integral part of our lives faster than most people expect.

Yesterday, Technology Review published an interesting article entitled: “Robots Learns to Use Tools.” What is really intriguing about the article, which describes a new robot called the UMass Mobile Manipulator or UMan for short, is that the robot is employing sophisticated algorithms to teach itself how to deal with unfamiliar objects.

One of the major barriers to date with robotics is that programmers have had to write complicated software code to help robots deal with almost every contingency that it might encounter. For example, for a household robot to be effective, it needs to recognize every item that might conceivably be in someone house – everything from a pair of scissors to a flower vase. This is no easy chore.

In the near future, however, robots need not necessarily know how to handle every object; they merely need to learn how to deal with that object in an appropriate fashion. Using the scissors as example, UMan can study the device and then can tinker with the blades until it understands how they are connected and how the object operates. Presumably, the robot will then know that it would be inappropriate to “run with scissors.” (cont.)

Category: Business & Work
Year: General
Tags: robots, householdrobots, umass, uman

A Trillion Reasons to Care About Genomics

juldrich — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 21:49:11 +0000

By Jack Uldrich

Cross-posted from www.jumpthecurve.net

I speak to a great many student groups and I am often struck by how few of them appreciate the difference between one million, one billion and one trillion. (In the name of fairness, the same is true of many adults). Perhaps, it is because the three figures are all large numbers that most people don’t think there is an appreciable difference. Perhaps, it is because the words – million, billion, and trillion – the rhyme; or maybe it’s just because they’re dumb—or have had poor teachers. I really don’t know.

One way I have tried to convey the difference between the numbers is by explaining the figures in a different way. To wit:

One million seconds was 12 days ago; One billion seconds was roughly 30 years ago; One trillion seconds was approximately 30,000 years ago – 28,000 B.C.!

My point with the analogy is that one trillion of anything is a really BIG number, and it is much, much different than one billion. This analogy is important because on January 17, 2006 the Wellcome Sanger Institute announced it had archived it’s one billionth DNA sequence. It was an impressive accomplishment.

Well, today, Wired magazine reported that the prominent genetics institute sequenced its trillionth base of DNA. This is a one thousand-fold improvement in just over two years. (cont.)

Category: Biotechnology
Year: General
Tags: genomics, wired, dna, genesequencing, exponentials, orderofmagnitude

15 Ways Nanotechnology is Making Life Better Today

juldrich — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 17:22:23 +0000

By Jack Uldrich

Cross-posted from www.jumpthecurve.net

Nanotechnology is expected to be a $2.6 trillion market by 2015. At the heart of this big new sector is something very small – molecules. To understand how and why nanotechnology – which is defined as the manipulation of matter at the molecular level – matters, you can begin at home.

The Writing is Off-the-Wall

Behr and others are now using nanoparticles to produce anti-mildew paints and anti-graffiti paints. Another company is perfecting a nano-enhanced wall paint that blocks cellphone calls and, longer-term, researchers expect to create a nano-solar paint that can turn your wall and even your house into a giant solar cell.

Scratch-Free

BASF has developed a nanoceramic material that is three times more resistant to scratching. It is already being employed on kitchen tabletops and car exteriors. The company hopes to have self-healing materials on the market in the near future.

Wipe Away Your Worries

Pilkington’s “Activ” glass uses nanoparticles of titanium dioxide to create self-cleaning windows; while Eddie Bauer, Tommy Hilfiger and Brooks Brothers all sell clothes that contain tiny “nano-whiskers” and make pants, shirts and ties resistant to stains of every kind. Upholstery and carpet are up next.

Wrap Your Head Around This: The New Flat Will Be Round

Nanostructured polymer films are being used in next-generation OLED (organic light emitting diode) lights. The benefit is that the lights are ten times more energy-efficient than regular lightbulbs and can be wrapped around poles. Super-thin, flexible electronic television screens that can be curved to create a more immersive experience are on the drawing board. (cont.)

Category: Business & Work
Year: General

Unlearning Death

juldrich — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 15:17:00 +0000

By Jack Uldrich

Cross-posted from www.unlearning101.com

In 1899, just a few years before the Wright brothers achieved their historic accomplishment, Lord Kelvin – then one of the world’s brightest men and most accomplished scientists – declared heavier than air machines to be "impossible."

He was wrong. To add insult to injury, Lord Kelvin was proved wrong by a pair of bicycle repairmen from Dayton, Ohio.

A few years ago, a relatively unknown computer scientist, Aubrey de Grey, declared that aging should not be viewed as something which will necessarily ultimately result in death. Rather, he theorized that aging is a disease and should be treated as such.

The outcry from the scientific community was similar to Lord Kelvin’s reaction to human flight. One group of scientists even declared that de Grey’s idea was "so far from plausible that it commands no respect at all within the informed scientific community."

Well, according to this article in Wired, the idea is now beginning to gain some acceptance within scientific circles. (cont.)

Category: Business & Work
Year: 2020
Tags: death, aging, aubreydegrey, degrey

Learning From Robots

juldrich — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 16:10:52 +0000

By Jack Uldrich

Cross-posted from www.jumpthecurve.net

When contemplating the future, people need to keep a very open mind about what might be possible. Consider this article which describes how researchers at UC San Diego are developing facial recognition technology that can recognize if a person is having trouble understanding an educational lesson – say in mathematics or biology.

As the technology continues to improve, one possible implication is that smart devices and robots will become better and more effective teachers because they will be able to pace lesson plans to an individual student’s ability to comprehend the information which is being presented.

Longer term, it is possible that robots and other smart devices will become more effective teachers than even human teachers because the machines will understand each student’s learning idiosyncrasies and then present material in a manner which is optimized for that individual student’s learning style.

Now, I understand how discomforting the idea that a robot might be a better teacher than your old favorite third grade teacher, Mrs. Hubbard, ever was; but, as that wise American philosopher Yoggi Berra once said, “The future ain’t what it used to be.” (cont.)

Category: Business & Work
Year: 2020
Tags: robot, learning, teaching, robotic