While just about half of the Future Blogger poll respondents
answered that it’s to early to hazard a guess, it’s interesting to
note that 2/3 of the remaining half believe that, yes, the
singularity will serve as our savior, just as 1/3 think it will
not. In other words, a significant amount of readers believe, as do
futurists like Ray Kurzweil, that
the
runaway exponential growth of technology, information and
intelligence will trump war and man-made disasters as we venture
further into the acceleration era.
Whether an educated guess, an underlying
faith, or a mix of the two, the sentiment is significant in and
of itself as an indicator of the human reaction to our rapidly
changing environment. However it plays out, it’s clear that the
notion of a positive-outcome singularity continues to pick up
meme-steam, which means that we should expect the idea of the
singularity to continue spreading to brains all across the globe,
especially as cognizance of acceleration increases.
May 21 2008 / by memebox Category: Technology Year: General Rating: 5 Hot
It is notoriously difficult to comprehend the compound growth
potential of exponential forces driving innovations in computing,
nanotech, and solar power, but pro futurist and regular future
blogger Jack
Uldrich does a great job explaining this counter-intuitive
phenomenon in his latest book Jump the Curve . Therefore I was
thrilled to come across this short & sweet video synopsis of
exponential potential by the man himself:
By employing comprehensible metaphors and gradually relating
accelerating change to our lives, Jack succinctly and effectively
gets the idea that “the really big change is still ahead of us”
across (no small feat). So if you’re looking for a link to send to
your non Accel-aware buddies, co-workers or relatives, this is
it.
Let’s start with a picture from Radar Networks’ CEO Nova Spivack:
Erick Schonfeld, asking
Is Keyword Search About to Hit its Breaking Point?, talks about
Spivack’s view of the future of the web. According to him it lies
ever-more-refined search technologies such as semantic search,
natural language search, and artificial intelligence. A quote:
Keyword search engines return haystacks, but what we really
are looking for are the needles . The problem with keyword search
such as Google’s approach is that only highly cited pages make it
into the top results. You get a huge pile of results, but the page
you want—the “needle” you are looking for—may not be highly cited
by other pages and so it does not appear on the first page. This is
because keyword search engines don’t understand your question, they
just find pages that match the words in your question.
Spivack wants to “do for data what the Web did for documents”
and develop a standard, uniform system for semantic metadata. It’s
the classic “dumb software, smart data” idea. Tagging works to a
degree, but it’s neither uniform nor standard — the same tag can
mean two different things for two different people, and two
different tags can mean the same thing.
That said, the premise underpinning Spivack’s whole argument is
that search will is the correct interface when faced with a world
of exponentially-increasing information. His version of the future
says, “Keyword search will become increasingly inefficient and the
solution is to develop semantically-aware systems that search based
on meaning, rather than content.” (cont.)
April 03 2008 / by memebox Category: Other Year: General Rating: 8
Dr. James Flynn, the
cognitive theorist who discovered the steady rise in human IQ
scores over the past 100 years (subsequently dubbed the Flynn
Effect), is now advancing a compelling new model of
intelligence based on the idea that
environment significantly impacts the development of intelligence,
aka our ability to solve complex problems.
Attributing IQ gains largely to “the rise of the scientific
ethos” and abstract thinking ability, as well as a propensity for
genes to “match better environments”, Flynn imagines a future in
which technological breakthroughs may better our ability to
comprehend complex systems, making us a good deal smarter. However,
he also cautiously points out that we could be approaching natural
limits to critical thinking ability, as the pursuit of decadence
increases and humans become “less willing to do cognitive
exercise”.
What follows is an illuminating must-read interview with Flynn
about his thoughts on the interplay between intelligence and our
rapidly changing environment:
MemeBox: What do you do and how is that related to the
future?
James Flynn: I am both a historian of cognition and a moral and
political philosopher. The latter relates to the future because
clear thinking about the good life and the good society is of
eternal value. However,my recent book, What is intelligence?
(Cambridge), describes the evolution of the American mind in the
20th century. As usual, only if we understand our immediate past
can we see the challenges the future holds. In this case, we can
make two predictions about the 21st century with some probability.
That developing nations will acquire the habits of mind that
developed nations have recently acquired. That the task for
developed nations like America is to build an enhanced critical
ability on the foundation of the IQ gains of the 20th century.
M: Why is the study of intelligence important to us
humans?
JF: That we think it is important is undeniable in that we spend
huge sums on education trying to train intelligence to be socially
useful. We are correct to do so. Intelligence is essentially the
capacity to solve problems and a complex industrial society demands
that we have certain habits of mind: that we classify the world in
a way that promotes a scientific understanding; that we can use
logic to deal with hypothetical problems; and that we can deal with
novel problems on the spot.
M: What is the relationship between environment and
intelligence? (Environment as in the whole system: biology,
information, technology, society, the universe.) To what extent can
we distinguish between the two?
JF: Until recently, it was thought we could use twin studies to
neatly distinguish the effects of genes and environment on IQ and
they said that genes were overwhelmingly potent and environment
feeble. Then I began to document these huge IQ gains over time that
amounted to some 30 to 50 IQ points during the 20th century in
America. These showed environmental factors of enormous potency,
but that of course created a paradox: how could the twin studies
show environment so feeble while IQ gains showed it to be so
potent? (Cambridge), describes the evolution of the American mind
in the 20th century. As usual, only if we understand our immediate
past can we see the challenges the future holds. In this case, we
can make two predictions about the 21st century with some
probability. That developing nations will acquire the habits of
mind that developed nations have recently acquired. That the task
for developed nations like America is to build an enhanced critical
ability on the foundation of the IQ gains of the 20th century.
March 29 2008 / by memebox Category: Other Year: General Rating: 2
Interesting compilation of paleo-futuristic art and animation,
featuring the work of Walt Disney Studios, Syd mead, Klaus Bürgle
and others. The recognizable music is George Bruns’ score for
“Magic Highway USA”. Enjoy your Saturday
morning cartoon!
March 24 2008 / by memebox Category: Transportation Year: 2008 Month: Sep Rating: 9
Bloomberg
reports that beleaguered auto manufacturer Chrysler LLC will begin offering wifi aboard their
vehicles later this year. As the first major auto producer to
provide internet access, this will give the company a big brand and
gadgetry edge, though its vehicles will no doubt continue to lag
in mileage and quality construction.
The feature will be added to existing vehicles by dealers
beginning this year and later be installed on the assembly line,
Frank Klegon, Executive Vice President—Product Development, said.
The Wi-Fi port, initially to be sold as a separate device, will
eventually be built into the vehicle’s radio system and coordinated
with other audio and video technologies to allow such things as
transferring music files from the user’s home computer.
Users will need a subscription to a wireless carrier in order to
connect to the internet, which will likely limit access to areas
within range of cell towers. Nevertheless, it marks a fresh start
for a desperate company sorely in need of compelling consumer
offerings, allowing a variety of applications, such as basic
navigation systems and music downloads, and eventually a much
broader suite of networked add-ons.
Somewhat surprisingly, it appears that the future of auto-web
connectivity will first be championed by an American
manufacturer.
March 22 2008 / by memebox Category: Other Year: Beyond Rating: 5
Yet another from the artistic mind of rzakis. What year
might this one portray? And what planet? Are those translucent
skyscrapers? Super-reactive OLED
surfaces? Why are there no cars or people in view? Have they all
left for a better place?
Big MemeBox props and a special certificate of recognition go to
the caption that captures the essence of this futuristic
cityskape.
March 21 2008 / by memebox Category: Biotechnology Year: 2015 Rating: 14 Hot
In a recent piece on the
genetic modification of fruit, Future Blogger
Venessa Posavec reported that “scientists have identified a
gene in tomatoes, dubbed SUN, which is
responsible for determining their shape,” and that “this is only a
small step, but might one day make the farmer’s market a lot more
interesting.”
Inspired by Venessa’s post, MemeBox designer extraordinaire,
Karl Alverson, whipped up this elegant vision of some designer
fruit products that may become available at your local grocery
store circa 2015:
Now that scientists
have isolated the appropriate genes they will work hard to
manipulate them and bring concepts like these to life, literally.
Such fruit forms (certainly cruder versions) may well hit store
bins by the estimated 2015 target.
excellent post titled “
environment significantly impacts the development of intelligence,
aka our ability to solve complex problems.
value. However,my recent book, What is intelligence?
(Cambridge), describes the evolution of the American mind in the
20th century. As usual, only if we understand our immediate past
can we see the challenges the future holds. In this case, we can
make two predictions about the 21st century with some probability.
That developing nations will acquire the habits of mind that
developed nations have recently acquired. That the task for
developed nations like America is to build an enhanced critical
ability on the foundation of the IQ gains of the 20th century.
edge, though its vehicles will no doubt continue to lag
in mileage and quality construction.
Yet another from the artistic mind of rzakis. What year
might this one portray? And what planet? Are those translucent
skyscrapers? Super-reactive 
