The World's First Trillion Dollar Company
February 27 2008 / by Alvis Brigis
Category: Technology Year: General Rating: 9
Accelerating advances in technology, communication and information sciences make it seem likely that sometime in the next 10 years we’ll see a company reach $1,000,000,000,000 (U.S.) in market value.
Chances are this company will come from the ranks of corporate
behemoths like Exxon/Mobil ($454 billion market cap), 
GE
($347 billion market cap), Microsoft ($263 billion market cap), or
Google ($162 billion market cap), especially when factoring in
their tendency to gobble up any stellar enterprise(s) on the rise.
But who knows? Perhaps somewhere out there, in this increasingly
tiny world, is an arrogant little upstart poised to completely rock
an unexplored industry will catapult itself through the
stratosphere (maybe literally) and flip the big boys the bird while
streaking by.
Either way, it’s nevertheless a fun and useful exercise to
imagine which potentially explosive industry will produce the
world’s first trillion dollar company. And so we futurists here at
MemeBox have put our heads together to formulate the following
speculative Top Ten list:
The 10 Most Likely $1,000,000,000,000 Industries
1. Artificial Intelligence: Any system that can outsmart the smartest businessman stands a great chance to accumulate enormous value for its owner. Ray Kurzweil has already devised an evolutionary program that does very well at picking stocks. Dick Pelletier points out that this is already a $21 billion industry . With Google, Microsoft and myriad promising start-ups converging on a viable AI, would you bet against this industry?
2. Space Mining: For the for time in history, space is about to open wide to private enterprises. The first company to figure out how to cheaply bring back large quantities of rare metals like uranium, platinum and gold will cash in. But there will be plenty of competition angling to carve up market share and the corresponding asteroids.
3. Human Genetics: Recent stem cell breakthroughs are turning the unimaginable into reality. We’re already selecting embryos for favorable characteristics. Organ cloning looks like a not-too-far-off reality. Barring complications, regulation, and an ethical backlash, the twin prospects of life extension and genetic enhancement will surely get the credits flowing.
4. Non-Human Genetics: We’ve already made glow-in-the-dark goldfish, grown ears from the backs of mice, and possibly created the first ever artificial life form. What custom creatures, designer pets and efficient new beasts of burden are just around the corner?
5. Super-Massive Solar Farms: As efficient solar cells continue to drop in price, somebody’s bound to put them to good use in a big way. The question is, will large industrial solar farms located in desolate, sunny areas pay off big, or will a decentralized model involving millions of private residents win the day. In both cases a central company that combines manufacturing and maintenance would stand to make a great deal of cashola. Of course, the Japanese national effort to install solar cells in space and then beam back the energy could trump both approaches.
6. Robotics: IRobot’s Roombas are storming the living rooms of the world. Farms and factories increasingly rely on industrial robotics. Honda’s robot can identify and navigate stairs with ease. Toyota envisions itself as a robotics rather than a car company in the future. The right robots at the right price could make their owners and manufacturers a great deal of money.
7. New-Fangled, Profitable Social Networks: MySpace, Facebook and LinkedIn have attained multi-billion dollar valuations despite the fact that they are difficult to monetize. At some point, somebody’s going to figure out how to rally together a group of people into a super-company or mini-nation, as Philip Rosedale of Second Life labels it, that can more deliberately generate enormous value. Widening bandwidth, advances in processing power, the proliferation of video capture, new content processing models, advanced advertising models, and breakthrough semantic applications are just some of the near-term advances that could significantly increase the value of social networks and their parent companies.
8. Mirror Worlds: Google, Microsoft, Yahoo and numerous others are all busily working on Earth platforms that represent major efficiencies for diverse fields like transportation, real estate, and city planning. As these digital environments get richer, more real-time and merge with social networks, related content and business applications could cause their value to skyrocket.
9. Reliable Traffic Control Networks: As robots, self-driving cars, and short-range aerial vehicles proliferate, they’re going to need a kick-ass and ultra-reliable traffic regulation system to help them , and us, co-exist. Such systems will be critical to unlocking the the economic promise of these technologies and will therefore fetch large sums from the companies, cities and nations that require it.
10. Nano-Fabrication: It’s already possible to
print human tissue and carbon nanotubes. The company that produces
a reasonably priced molecular assembler will enable the alchemist’s
dream of: a machine that can spit out a variety of matter in
different shapes and sizes. (Need some help on this one.)
Those that didn’t make the cut:
Cryonics: The first company to “bring someone back” will spark a mad rush for their services. Maybe Paris Hilton is smarter than we thought.
Telekinetcs: Manufacturers of functional brain-computer-interfaces, like Emotiv, could do very well depending on the quality of their products.
Regular Old Evolution: A diabolical genius with designs and the capability to blow up the moon or create a nuclear mantle plume could conceivably leverage a trillion dollar ransom.
Canned Air: If pollution really gets out of hand, a Spaceballs-esque air producer could make a big market play.
So, which of the above industries do you think is most likely to produce the first trillion dollar company? Be sure to vote for your favorite via the poll below or point out which booming industries we may have neglected in the comments.
Comment Thread (6 Responses)
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I think you are correct that artificial intelligence could become the first trillion dollar company. Already we have succeeded in automating electricity delivery to homes, trading stocks on exchanges, and much of the flow of goods and services to stores and offices everywhere. And just around the corner, the first artificial general intelligence is about to become reality. AI is truly off to the races.
However, AI may not remain in the lead. Entrepreneurs Richard Branson and Robert Bigelow dream of getting private citizens into space for vacations and jobs over the next three decades.
This bold venture could be responsible for the most lucrative commerce effort in history – asteroid mining. Space Foundation CEO Elliott Pulham talks of mining a giant asteroid expected to pass closely by in 2019 known as A3554 which is full of valuable metals like nickel and platinum and could generate 20 trillion in revenue alone. Experts predict that asteroid mining will become the world’s most profitable industry ever by around mid-century.
But an even greater commerce giant could be ready to grab the limelight in the 2040s and 2050s – non-biological materials to replace human cells. After the biotech and medical nanotech revolutions in the 2010s and 2020s knock out disease and aging, the next natural step is to replace biology with non-biological “immortal” materials.
When you consider that by mid-century there could be 10 or 11 billion humans needing a complete non-biological enhancement at say $100,000 or so (?), this could quickly become the world’s newest and largest industry.
Granted, this may sound more like science fiction than science, but many of the technologies that could make this futuristic scenario possible are already underway today. And remember, as science fiction sometimes precludes real science advances, positive thoughts about our future can also serve as a template for the real future.
Posted by: futuretalk February 27, 2008
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When I lived in LA, I met a bunch of the Space Tourism Society guys at some ASF Future Salons who turned me on to the many benefits of space travel. Now I see their predictions on the verge of translating into reality as it seems that everyone, including Google (planning to lay down the information infrastructure for outer space), is revving up for a big push into space tourism and then resource mining. I could also imagine space-based solar and information systems claiming big revenues quickly. As you point out, asteroid mining, the surrounding/enabling industries or something else space-based may well surpass AI… unless AI is that which makes the space-harvesting possible (like the spice melange allowing access to space travel).
Non-biological materials replacing human cells is a powerful concept. It seems logical that reliable, compatible and defensible micro-life-structures could become very necessary as the bio-tech system evolves and our bodies either face new challenges or focus on the old ones (like short life spans). This lines up nicely with the idea that evolution is constantly tunneling inward, a concept frequently espoused by one John Smart. :)
Posted by: Alvis Brigis February 27, 2008
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Telecom is probably the real big thing. High speed internet access wherever you are in the world. Cheap clever mobile devices with expandable sensors, smart data processing capabilities.
However, the first $1,000,000,000,000 industry might actually be the US military. Those people are working on AI, robotics, nanotech, communication, space travel etc. and are well funded. Their researchers might as well develop products for the mass market in order to make some extra money.
Posted by: Koreman February 28, 2008
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dude that’s freaking scary. i never thought about the us military that way. although i did read a stat recently that said that the us military spends more money than the rest of the world’s militaries COMBINED…
Posted by: mariposa February 29, 2008
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on nov 5 2007 PetroChina had a trillion dollar market cap after its IPO in shanghai. (Now down to 550b$)
Posted by: rainer March 06, 2008
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Out of the list above, i think Google is the #1 candidate. They are aggressively expanding their services and markets all the time. It is also a very young company with excellent leadership and a great working environment. Their 80% rule is just the ticket to make the company $1T.
What’s the 80% rule? It says that each employee only spends 80% of their time doing their regular “job”. The get to spend the remaining 20% time pursuing their own ideas to invent new products and services for Google. How smart is that!
Besides that, Google can build the space elevator, which will increase its influence in a big way.
The world is changing faster and faster. Each technological improvement fuels others. Genetics, robotics (including Roomba!) and nanotech are going to change the world in a big way, in just the next 10 years.
A wonderful book on the topic is “The Singularity is Near” by Ray Kurzweil. It the most interesting of his books, in my humble opinion.
And, many of the ideas above that seem a bit crazy are already working. After reading The Singularity is Near I developed an Artificial Intelligence system to buy and sell stocks and other market assets. The goal is to allow anyone to retire in 4 years, freeing them from the day-to-day imprisonment of cubicle life.
This new freedom will fuel even more technological advances, because people will be free to chase their dreams and improve the world.
www.OnlineInvestingAI.com
Posted by: georgeu2000 November 21, 2008
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