A Race for Our Future
March 24 2008 / by juldrich
Category: Culture Year: 2008 Rating: 11
By Jack Uldrich
Cross-linked from jumpthecurve.net
A few years back, I came across a quote that has really stuck
with me: “You can’t incrementalize your way into the
future.” With this quote in mind, I’d invite you to read this
short article from Popular Mechanics
discussing the new X-Prize to create an automobile that achieves
100 miles-per-gallon or more—and can be mass-produced. 
What I like about the contest is that it is not trying to “incrementalize” the automobile industry into the future. In other words, the sponsors of the contest are not looking for a crappy 5 or 10 mile improvement in MPG performance from the automotive industry. They are looking for a 4X improvement.
I’m optimistic that the contest will succeed and that within a decade’s time many of us will be able to purchase a safe, stylish and comfortable car that can run more than a 100 miles on a single gallon of fuel. This is because by freeing researchers, scientists, hobbyists and tinkers from the constraints and paradigms that have so far mired the automotive industry in a century of un-innovative thinking; the sponsors have provided inventors a sufficient financial incentive – in the form of a $10 million prize – to approach the issue from a completely fresh perspective.
As an analogy consider the following: If you asked a high jumper to improve his jump by 5 to 10%, he would probably focus only improving his leg strength – so he could jump higher. If, however, you told him the goal was to “jump as high as possible” and that he would be rewarded for reaching the highest level, he would llikely look at a whole new set of tools with which to achieve the goal. To keep the analogy simple, he might consider using a pole vault – an advance which would effectively double the height he could jump.
In this same way, the X Prize is providing people sufficient motivation to think differently about the issue of fuel-efficiency and the result won’t be an incremental improvement – it’ll be an exponential increase.
As Peter Diamandis, the founder of the X Prize, says at the end of this five-minute video profiling some of the leading contenders for the prize, “this is a race for our future.”
It is, indeed, and the contest offers further evidence that we won’t be incrementalizing our way into the future.
Comment Thread (1 Response)
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“You can’t incrementalize your way into the future.”
You’ve just given me a new favorite quote. It rings very true that growth in specific industries and social systems tends to come in punctuated spurts.
Hopefully pro-social contests such as these proliferate and help to catalyze a broader near-term growth/innovation spurt.
Posted by: Alvis Brigis March 25, 2008
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