It would be great to think that the future will be better than
the present, and all emerging technologies will be created to do
the most good. But, the future holds no guarantees, and we’d be
irresponsible and falsely idealistic to cheerlead every new
development without looking at its acccompanying risks. 
To help us at that task, we spoke with Michael Anissimov, a
futurist blogger over at Accelerating
Future, and Fundraising Director, North America of the
Lifeboat
Foundation. He writes extensively on existential risk (or
extinction risk), which he defines as “a risk so severe it
threatens to wipe out the human race or permanently curtail our
potential.” The biggest potential threats come from nanotechnology,
biotechnology, and AI/robotics.
Anissimov explained the mission of the Lifeboat Foundation, and
gave us his views about how new technologies might impact us in the
upcoming years if we don’t plan ahead. Though he’s generally
optimistic, he forced us to put down our Future pom-poms for a
minute, and really consider the risks that accompany powerful
technology.
(cont.)
“The Lifeboat Foundation is a non-profit organization that looks
at serious risks to humanity’s future and attempts to address them
through its programs. It currently has nine active programs,
focusing on preventing risks associated with AI, asteroids,
bioweapons, and nanoweapons. There are programs to boost
sousveillance (watching the watchers), Internet security, and
scientific freedom. For backup plans, there are programs devoted to
developing the technical knowledge for self-sustaining bunkers and
space habitats.”
“To me, preventing extinction risk is the foremost moral
imperative of our time. In less than a decade, humanity will likely
develop weapons even more deadly than nukes – synthetic life, and
eventually, nanorobots and self-improving AI. Even if we consider
the likelihood of human extinction in the next century to be small,
say 1%, it still merits attention due to the incredibly high stakes
involved – if mankind goes extinct here on Earth, we’ll never be
able to colonize the galaxy and fill it with sentient beings living
worthwhile lives. This moral calculus makes lowering extinction
risk a cause like no other. “
He warned that many futurists have a “happy ending bias” and
tend to pepper the future with “rosy scenarios” to keep clients and
the geek community blindly optimistic about the future. Though many
people consider the risk of human extinction no more than a
far-fetched joke, he stressed that it’s a dangerous possibility
worth considering with maturity.
“The biggest dangers facing humanity are either self-replicating
or self-amplifying. In the self-replicating category, we have
synthetic life (coming to a lab near you in 2009), genetically
modified pathogens (like an enhanced version of the 1918 Spanish
flu virus), and self-replicating robotics, especially nanobots (not
here yet, but likely to arrive by 2020). In the self-amplifying
category, there is superintelligence in general, which can be
broken down into intelligence-enhanced humans, brain-computer
interfaces, and artificial intelligence. If a superintelligence got
it into its head that it didn’t care about humanity or some subset
of humanity, that group would have a very hard time indeed.”
Anissimov told us he doesn’t expect the truly disruptive changes
to happen before 2020 or so, but also admit that his views might be
considered conservative by most futurist standards. Focusing on the
near-term, he shared his insight about how the next 10 years might
shake out.
2008
Synthetic Life: The first synthetic organism,
Mycoplasma
laboratorium, will likely be created. This will be a historic
moment.
(risk: “If a destructive synthetic microbe is
released into the biosphere, who knows how much damage it could do.
Synthetic biology could exploit pathogenic strategies that natural
biology has very poor innate defenses against, having no
evolutionary experience against these invaders. “)
Brain-Computer Interface: The first commercial
brain-computer interface for gaming, Emotiv EPOC™, will be available to the public, starting
at $300 USD. The EPOC will bring the experience of using a
brain-computer interface (BCI) to the common gamer, which could
lead to a fundamental shift in attitudes towards BCI across society.
Space Tourism on the Rise: Space tourism will
become more popular, and in 2009, the world first commercial
spaceport, Spaceport America,
will open.
2013
Increased Transparency: The world will become
increasingly transparent, with hobbyists installing live streaming
cameras in public places, and it being essentially impossible to do
anything about it. Face recognition software will automatically tag
every image of you and upload it to open websites.
Molecular Manufacturing & AI: The
continuation of Moore’s law will
mean that computers in 2013 will be about ten times more powerful
than today, which will allow better molecular dynamics simulations
and more lifelike virtual agents. In many ways, I think the world
of 2013 will be similar to the world of today, except for being
more networked and transparent.
2018
Computing Power & AI: Computers will be
roughly 100 times more powerful than those of today, and there will
be hundreds of supercomputers that exceed the computing power of
the human brain. The time will be ripe to create general AI. Using
virtual worlds as a learning environment, and skipping expensive
and clumsy robotics, programmers will craft increasingly more
intelligent software, informed by cognitive science on one hand and
information theory on the other. If general AI is successfully
created, it could quickly lead to a hard takeoff Singularity.
Wearable Computers: We will have wearables that
can tell what we’re going to say before we say it (this already
exists, but the vocabulary is only 150 words), project images
directly onto our retina, allow us to navigate menus using just the
power of our brain, and replace the functions of cell phones, mp3
players, GPS devices—you name it. These
will be elegantly integrated into our clothing rather than being
used as external devices.
Personalized Manufacturing: Personalized
manufacturing will start to be a big deal in 10 years, whether
molecular
manufacturing is developed or not. If MM is developed, we will
be building superproducts out of diamond. Otherwise, we will
synthesize gadgets using simple plastics and electronics
components. This will be a boon to the Third World, which has
trouble getting ahold of centrally manufactured products.
(MM risk: “If unscrupulous governments gain
control of unrestricted nanofactories, they could manufacture
millions of smart missiles, tanks, UAVs, even aircraft carriers,
for extremely low cost. This would radically destabilize
international relations. If it turns out that nanoweapons (offense)
overpowers nanodefenses (defense), then there will be a powerful
first strike incentive. Because MM will automate vast sectors of
military manufacturing, it has the potential to kickstart a new
arms race on an unprecedented scale.)
War?: The utmost disruptive event would be
World War III. This is another one of
those things that many futurists ignore because it isn’t useful for
pandering to the audience’s technophilia and optimism. If
WWIII breaks out, it could throw our
civilization behind dozens if not hundreds of years. Aside from a
World War, we should watch out for an apocalyptic event unleashed
by synthetic life or
microscopic self-replicating
machines.
To read the full interview transcript, click here
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