Future of War - suicide bombers changing rules of conflict
March 31 2008 / by futuretalk
Category: Security Year: General Rating: 10
By Dick Pelletier
In The American Way of War, historian Russell Weigley
describes a grinding strategy of destruction employed by the US
military over the last 150 years. To end the Civil War, Grant
felt he had to completely destroy Lee
soldiers. In World War I, Pershing
relentlessly bombarded and wore down Germany’s proud fighting
machine. And the Army Air Corps pulverized major German and
Japanese cities to win World War II. 
These wars were not won by tactical or strategic brilliance but by the sheer weight of numbers – the awesome destructive power that only a fully mobilized and highly industrialized democracy can bring to bear. In these conflicts, US armies suffered and inflicted massive casualties. Our ability to both inflict and endure such casualties more effectively than could our adversaries ultimately resulted in victory.
However, this strategy is no longer effective. Inspired by latest information technologies, the US military has adopted new warfare tactics that eliminate the bloody matches of old. The new style seeks quick victory with minimal casualties on both sides and utilizes speed, flexibility, and surprise. It relies on precision firepower and integrates naval, air, and land forces into a seamless whole. This technique was clearly demonstrated in the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
But experts predict that even this latest approach must change. Today, we experience conflict that includes warfare in which dominant military powers are confronted by a wide range of adversaries – from non-state radical ideologies (al Qaeda), to transnational criminal elements (Russian Mafia), to rogue states (N. Korea, Iran) – all employing unconventional tactics.
(cont.)
From suicide bombers to information warfare, the threat has become inescapable. 9/11 brought world attention to “suicide warfare” and it has been echoed many times around the world; and experts say we can expect this trend to continue. Former National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski warns that “future terrorist groups will view 9/11 as the standard for success.”
And even more dangerous, today’s enemies are trying to acquire chemical, biological and nuclear arms. These weapons in the hands of organizations like al Qaeda which is not connected to any nation, represent extreme danger. In response to these threats, the US military is considering radical solutions; one of which includes a better understanding of our enemies.
Recognizing that military power alone cannot beat 21st century terrorists; former DARPA director Robert Popp believes that intelligence must improve. “We need more Arabic speakers, more experts who understand tribal relations in Pakistan, and diplomats who can win over audiences on Al Jazeera, the popular Arab TV channel,” Popp says.
Also, forward-thinkers believe that future technologies will help. Over the next two decades, biotechnologies promise to improve health and extend lives, and nanotechnology could bring an end to food, water and energy shortages worldwide. As these breakthroughs materialize, they will increase prosperity everywhere and eliminate much of the underlying causes of unrest in developing nations.
Could these technologies, along with exponentially-advancing A.I. end all crime, violence, and wars? Experts say yes, this miracle could happen and it could become reality by as early as mid-century. Welcome to a “magical future” where hostilities are replaced by excitement over new technologies and the awe of exploring space.
Comment Thread (1 Response)
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The only thing that stands to prevent such a Utopian scenario is fear, unwarranted fear, by some first developer that such technology might fall into the hands of evil, to use for destruction. This fear will manifest itself through the round the clock monitoring of nearly every person on the planet, and through the sabotage of any independent effort to develop these wondrous and world changing technologies.
To be brutally honest though, I fear the most likely cause of this suppression will not be for fear of terror, but fear of no longer being an elite. No longer guiding the world, but just being one of the many.
A despot holds the power of immortality and prosperity in her hands, but if she gives it to the people, she will never rule again. But if, instead, she uses this power for ill, she can rule for all time, with a thousand faces, ever ready to crush any revolt under her thumb, denying the people immortality and prosperity, hording it only for herself. Such a person might not even think herself wrong, but instead believe she holds a Pandora’s Box, and that her greed for power and glory is actually protecting the world from an evil only she understands.
So I do not look toward the future with hope, filled with prosperity, but instead fear we will see only more of the same, denied a new Eden by a false God who believes they alone know right from wrong. Someone who has eaten the apple, convinced by a serpent of doubt, winding its way through their mind.
Posted by: tk421 September 09, 2008
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