Future of jobs in a world filled with automation and robots
March 06 2008 / by futuretalk
Category: Business & Work Year: General Rating: 13
By Dick Pelletier
A recent World Future Society report explains how technology is
indeed a job killer. The whole idea of tools, machines, and systems
is to do things easier, faster, or better than barehanded humans
can; 
so industry, by its very nature, is motivated to reduce human
labor.
Automated systems will soon cause more job losses than all of America’s outsourcing to third-world countries combined, and policymakers must now create new social and economic measures to prepare for what some refer to as, “the robotic industrialization of the world.”
A large number of first-level jobs in service industries related to customer service, help desk, and directory assistance are about to be lost to emerging intelligent systems, according to a recent Strategy Analytics report.
This wave of job losses follows the elimination of 10 million jobs involving physical labor and repetitive activities that were wiped out during the past 10 years, as machines and automated systems replaced humans, the report noted. During the same period, businesses invested more than $100 billion in robotics and supporting systems. Today, over 1 million robots work worldwide.
And another threat will soon be emerging, according to economists. For a growing segment of workers with midrange skills, further expansion of intelligent systems into capabilities involving decision making, advisory functions, identification, and analytical functions will result in even more job losses.
Automated systems will slowly nibble away at lower-skilled jobs before moving on to the main course. As robots become more plentiful and smarter, no job is safe; no age or class immune. Every job from janitor to executive is at risk.
But as technology takes, it also gives. Nano-replicators expected by mid-2020s, could drastically lower living costs, reducing the amount of income needed. Scientists say these countertop machines will transform dirt, air and seawater into food, clothing and household items at little or no cost.
However, these technology benefits may not be enough to raise a jobless family’s living standard to levels necessary to enjoy tomorrow’s high-tech world, so economists suggest that governments should create a “citizen’s basic income” (CBI) program similar to the one instituted in Brazil. CBIs would provide every citizen with basic income, which could be paid for, experts say, by taxing automated businesses.
Roboticist Hans Moravec predicts that by 2020, robots will simulate the intelligence of a monkey. That may not seem smart, but with adequate software, it will be intelligent enough to perform most of today’s jobs. And here’s the “killer-ap” – future ‘bots can build labor-free copies of themselves increasing their numbers exponentially. By mid-2020s, some predict, humanoids could outnumber people.
As robots advance, ethical issues will arise. 2020 robots with “monkey” intelligence may act too dumb; if they are teased or abused, should the law protect them? How about 2030 ‘bots with human-level intelligence; do we treat them as equals? Finally, how do we keep robots that surpass human intelligence, as predicted by many to happen by mid-2030s, from mistreating us?
Clearly, our automated world of tomorrow poses unknown, possibly even dangerous turns; but this writer envisions a “magical future” unfolding with driverless air/cars, indefinite lifespan, and robots that promise an enjoyable experience for everyone.
Comment Thread (3 Responses)
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As robots take over all rote jobs and AI gets smarter that will hopefully push the rest of us up the hierarchy of needs rather than displacing us. Some say that we’ll become more valuable and serve as gardeners that oversee and teach these new systems, and that the more of them there are, the more valuable we’ll become. That could result in a pretty magical increase in income for everyone. ;)
Posted by: Accel Rose March 06, 2008
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I also think that as robots take our jobs (most of which we don’t like anyways), the system will evolve so that humans are better utilized for their skills, time and attention. Via micro-payments, a person could get paid for every second of his/her time spent giving feedback, contributing to an online community, or doing things they actually enjoy like playing video games, blogging about current events or critiquing new literature. So I think as long as robots don’t get out of hand and the makers remain in control, humans will be liberated by their job displacement, allowing them to better/finally utilize their own human capital and do what they enjoy.
Posted by: Marisa Vitols March 06, 2008
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It will be amazing to watch the robot revolution unfold over the next couple of decades.
From the present to 2015, Asian, U.S., and EU entrepreneurs will scramble to develop new innovations in robotics and automated systems.
Strong focus will be placed in ‘bots, computers, and systems that improve home life; humanoids that assist elderly and handicapped in medical and retirement facilities, and industry systems that help with security ID, customer service, sales, and decision-making.
From 2015 to 2025, loaded with creative software, robots will have the potential to assume nearly any human job, including building copies of themselves. However, they will still be considered only a dumb machine by human intelligence standards.
But they will be in huge demand, and with nanotech processes creeping into the picture, they could be manufactured at affordable prices. Every family will own at least one. And many ‘bots will be “farmed out” to perform jobs that generate income for its owner.
From 2025 to 2030, technology will advance very quickly and robot minds could become highly sophisticated. It will be evident that this “artificial” being is not much different than us and policymakers will create all kinds of rules and regulations to keep this powerful new industry under control.
This may be the time when industry and governments get together to create a “robot road map” to help understand how to enable our new silicon cousins to merge with us and share our world.
From 2030 to 2035, robots will begin to surpass human intelligence and humanity must be prepared to alter its biological bodies in order to interface our minds with this strong artificial intelligence and share their massive knowledge. In this manner, we will always stay smarter than our creations and will not need to fear their power.
From 2035 to 2050, many positive futurists see this period as the “golden age of intelligence” with minds increasing in processing power by billions over 2008 puny “wet” brains. By mid-century, everyone that has opted for enhancement will sport a non-biological body immune from any harm. Now we are ready to go forward and scatter our populations to the stars. By the middle of the 22nd century, more humans (yes, we may still consider ourselves human) could live in space than on Earth.
Comments welcome.
Posted by: futuretalk March 06, 2008
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