Uldrich-125x250

Install a Future Scanner button on your blog.

The Future of Ideas: Embracing Redundancy, Maximizing Social Progress

May 21 2008 / by Alvis
Category: Government   Year: General   Rating: 11 Hot

Mike Masnick at Tech Dirt has a great piece up about the concept of idea redundancy in which he responds to a conflicted Malcom Gladwell article that praises Nathan Mhyrvold idea-tank company Intellectual Ventures, which makes money by conceiving and patenting hundreds of ideas, while at the same time noting that ideas are likely to pop up simultaneously in different brains.

Whereas Gladwell writes that, “Good ideas are out there for anyone with the wit and the will to find them, which is how a group of people can sit down to dinner, put their minds to it, and end up with eight single-spaced pages of ideas,” Masnick critiques that “if these ideas are the natural progression, almost guaranteed to be discovered by someone sooner or later, why do we give a monopoly on these ideas to a single discoverer?”

Being a bit of an idea junkie myself, I have often contemplated the notions of idea formation, attribution, ownership and profitability, both from an individual and social context. Fundamentally, I agree with Masnick’s argument that “in giving monopoly rights to Myhrvold and his friends [in addition to gigantic corporate actors, universities and other patent trolls], we make it much more difficult for others (even those who discovered the same things totally independently) to help actually make them useful.” That being said, I also realize that the patent system that we currently have was and is needed to protect the rights of inventors and encourages many people to invest time into the innovation of concepts.

From a broader systems context, it seems to me we should be striving to find the “sweet spot” for social progress. This entails using the most cost-effective means to most accurately attribute ideas to their rightful creators (whether those be multiple individuals, social groups, long historical chains thinkers, or even biological systems themselves), while ensuring that they benefit us in the short-term and long-term through 1) their execution and diffusion, and 2) by profiting the creators appropriately to raise their standard of living and encourage additional innovation directly at the source. (cont.)

Fortunately, the evolving web and the freeing-up of human minds for abstract thinking have resulted in what Creative Commons founder Lawrence Lessig describes as an innovation commons that appears to be on the verge of catalyzing a new low-cost, reliable, “2.0” patent system.

Most importantly, in addition to fostering an explosion of new innovation through connectivity, the web is evolving into a historical record of innovation and idea flow. As information storage steadily gets cheaper, new websites organize and structure volumes of data, semantic and AI technologies evolve, and increases in computer processing speeds allow for more rapid search, it becomes much easier to retro-actively quantify when, where and how certain ideas came to be. This has already disrupted numerous patents as lawyers are now able to point to pre-existing or simultaneously occurring innovations. Still, establishing this requires a significant legal investment which ultimately favors larger actors.

At the same time new social media, or Web 2.0, structures such as the next iterations of Idea Spigit and Innovation Exchange appear poised (my bet is within 2-3 years) to enable widespread micro-innovation by rewarding participants with participation, legal representation or even direct income (probably by sharing ad revenue in a manner similar to Google Knol) in exchange for depositing your ideas.

As the web continues to evolve, new Idea 2.0 structures are invented and people become more accustomed to publicly recording their innovations in real-time, it’s clear that a new patent system will have to emerge to accommodate the more accurate simulation of human innovation. Even though the U.S. Patent Office itself is going digital, supported by patent powerhouses like IBM, I think it’s most likely the solution will come from the ranks of idea-related start-ups that understand how to best integrate social networks with new semantic and AI technologies rather than any top-down extension of the existing system. When this new system is invented (or finally becomes efficient enough) most of us will agree that it is more fair and that it decreases the occurrence of Innovation Attribution Errors and high-cost New Idea Redundancy.

Of course, it’s also possible that a variety of different idea systems will arise and that different nations, generations and/or demographics will adopt the ones that benefit them most. Such a future could see countries like the U.S. or a United Europe resisting until the latest possible moment.

Comment Thread (0 Responses)

Related content from the Future Scanner and Future Blogger