Civilization: from crude beginnings to a promising future
August 19 2008 / by futuretalk
Category: Other Year: General Rating: 4
By Dick Pelletier
Humanity is facing what many see as the most important decision in its history – to move from nonrenewable fossil fuels as the primary source of energy to renewable sources that could, some believe, allow us to achieve Type 1 Civilization status.
In 1964, astronomer Nikolai Kardashev devised a method to categorize future civilizations based on energy consumption. Type-1 utilizes all solar energy striking its planet, Type-2 controls all the energy in its solar system; and Type-3 harnesses power from every star in its galaxy.
Today, physicists rate Earth at Type-0.7. In The Runaway Universe, astronomer Don Goldsmith reminds us that we receive only one billionth of the suns energy, and we utilize just one millionth of that; but with nanotech advances expected by mid-century, experts predict we could reach Type-1 by 2100.
In order to see a clearer picture of how we might advance in the future, Kardashev-type ratings have been assigned to past evolutionary events. We begin at the dawn of humanity:
400,000-to-250,000 years ago; Type-0.0 – Wikipedia identifies this period as the time when Homo sapiens split from the great apes and evolved as modern humans in Africa.
150,000 years ago; Type-0.1 – In Cooking and Cognition: How Humans Got So Smart evolutionary anthropologist Philipp Khaitovich explains how emergence of the hearth allowed humans to eat cooked food for the first time. This increased caloric intake enabling us to send more power to our brains, which resulted in huge intelligence boosts. Human brains require 20 percent of our calories, while other vertebrate brains use only 2 percent of their caloric intake.
100,000 years ago; Type-0.2 – A Sumatra volcano eruption caused a 1,400-yr freeze which nearly drove humans extinct, reducing populations to under 10,000. This prompted cooperation between tribes. Illinois anthropologist Stanley Ambrose calls this the “troop-to-tribe transition.”
90,000 years ago; Type-0.3 – Humans left Africa for the Near East 90,000 years ago; then to Australia 50,000 years ago, Europe 40,000 years ago and America 12,000 years ago. This desire to explore new lands is still with us today as we dream of one day developing colonies in space.
50,000 years ago; Type-0.4 – Physiologist Jared Diamond in The Third Chimpanzee says this is when humans first made clothes from hides, buried their dead, improved hunting techniques, and created artistic cave paintings.
10,000 years ago; Type-0.5 – Human culture began, with agriculture and political hierarchies, including primitive economic divisions of labor.
2,000 years ago; Type-0.6 – Local communities merge into larger cities, led by dominant leaders, with lower-class members producing food and products consumed by the upper-class.
Today; Type-0.7 – We’ve mapped the human genome, conquered deadly diseases, equipped most people on Earth with cell phones, and are on the verge of developing quantum computers, molecular nanotech, and establishing space colonies.
However, to be considered Type-1, we must build an economy where people can trade freely, make the entire world’s knowledge available on a higher-speed Internet, create global democracy with equal rights for everyone, and harness all of our planet’s renewable energy sources.
This is a tall order, but forward-thinkers believe that technology will enable humanity to achieve this miracle by 2100, and enjoy what promises to become an amazing “magical future.”
This article will appear in various print media and blogs; comments welcome. See other published work by Dick at http://www.positivefuturist.com and click on the “published work” tab.
Comment Thread (2 Responses)
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Do you believe that as we ascend the civilization Type hierarchy that it’s possible we will naturally evolve into a black hole that gobbles all of the energy around us?
Posted by: Alvis Brigis August 22, 2008
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I see humanity’s future unfolding something like this:
By 2100, we will pretty much become a Type 1, global village, no more crime or conflicts with each other; ready to begin exploring other worlds.
After a hundred years or so, we could achieve Type 2 status by 2200 harnessing all the power in our solar system (we’ll probably create an electronic version of the Dyson Sphere to mine all the energy from our sun). This huge energy increase could power new space ship technologies enabling us to venture out of our solar system at faster-than-light speeds to establish more distant colonies. As Type 2 we will benefit from trillions of times more intelligence than we have today, which could enable us to begin living our lives in the digital world, without need for physical bodies.
Then possibly a millennium or so down the road, we might advance to Type 3, able to harness energy from 100 billion or more stars in our galaxy. This should provide us with the power to create and manage wormholes allowing us to instantly travel to anywhere in our universe; and back and forward through time. What might our personal lives be like at this time? The answer might be found in the wildest imaginings of science fiction. I don’t believe today we have enough neuron processing capability to even suppose what the future will be like this far in advance.
Finally as some forward-thinkers propose, after maybe a dozen or so additional millenniums, we will achieve Type 4; able to travel to other universes and even create new baby universes for whatever purpose we might find in this futuristic time. But is this really the final stage? Probably it is not. Stay tuned.
Comments welcome.
Posted by: futuretalk August 22, 2008
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